A decent boot camp for marketing is to work on a campaign. In these contests, there are two brands with few differentiating attributes re the product that consumers discern. Would you know who is president, at any given time, if you didn’t know who is president? The race for president of the United States is a function of perception, whoever builds the better brand. The product is purchased on a single day, and whoever captures 51% market share is given the entire market for 4-8 years and the number 2 is out of business. Elections are full-body contact marketing.
It’s not who’s better, but who does a better job de-positioning (i.e., trashing) the other brand. Elections in America have become a contest between who you dislike least.
Mo Money/No Money
An e-commerce company’s most valuable asset is its customer database. Email drives sales. Too many emails increases unsubscribes/churn. There’s a sweet spot between growth and strangling the golden goose. My first clue that Red Envelope (the e-commerce company I founded and which had subsequently gone public) was in trouble came during the 2007 holiday season, when I started receiving four times the usual number of promotional emails. I saw the same signal during the final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign.
In June, Biden outspent Trump 6 to 1. Polls had Biden either treading water or losing ground. But the race between the septuagenarian and the octogenarian was always close. This wasn’t about polls. For Biden, the beginning of the end was when his big-money donors withheld $90 million.
Money talks in American politics, and it usually says the winner’s name. In the previous cycle, the better-financed campaign won 93% of House races and 82% of Senate races — typical win rates in the 21st century. In every election cycle since Citizens United, the money gets louder. While Democrats pretend Biden stepping down was about his love of country or believe the former speaker was the wizard behind the curtain, the reason Biden is headed for the exit is less romantic: Money didn’t talk, it swore at Biden and told him to fuck off. Specifically, fundraising ground to a halt after the debate.
The Smoke-Filled Room
As the curtain dropped, the spotlight shifted to Vice President Kamala Harris. There are tangible benefits to a Harris candidacy. Serving four years as VP is the best training for the presidency. She was on the ticket that won the Democratic primary. With less than four months until the election Harris starts the race at letter F, vs. A. Seamless access to Biden’s money and infrastructure is a big deal. She also raised $81 million in 24 hours; and half of that money came from small donors. Sixty percent of those were first-time donors. The day after his conviction, Trump raised $53 million, but $50 million came from one billionaire. Money appears to be serenading the former senator.
And yet, watching Democratic leaders quickly fall in line to endorse Harris before a challenger could emerge is a coronation, not a contest. If you thought party elites put their finger on the scale in 2016, how does 2024 feel? The bumper sticker is the same as it was a week ago, we’ve just swapped out names: “Get behind Biden Harris, or shut the fuck up.” While the elites may have picked the heir, it was the same elites who pretended there was nothing wrong and 75% percent of America told them to hold their beer and find another candidate.
Historically, party bosses picked the candidates in “smoke-filled rooms.” And there is something to be said for expertise. But after a disastrous 1968 Convention, Democrats sped up a shift toward small-d democracy to pick their nominees. By 1976, Democrats selected 73% of convention delegates in primaries, while Republicans chose 68%. That year, Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford, the only person to become president without running for the office or being elected VP first. For the next three cycles, Democratic voters nominated sacrificial lambs: Carter (49 electoral votes), Walter Mondale (13 electoral votes), and Michael Dukakis (111 electoral votes). But that same system also gave us Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. There’s something to be said for a process where voters choose the nominees.
There’s no such thing as a perfect nominating process. This one is remarkably imperfect — the optics of a smoke-filled room and a candidate who won’t have the benefit of combat in the primaries. I believe the Democrats, and the Vice President, would have benefited from a Shark Tank-like series of debates in the weeks leading up to the convention. Specifically, down ballot candidates would have benefited from a media spectacle highlighting how strong the D bench is. This, in my view, could have buttressed the blue brand and made voters more likely to vote D when they weren’t familiar with a down ballot candidate. But angst and second-guessing are counterproductive at this point according to every fucking party elite… telling me several times a day. As my Pivot podcast partner Kara Swisher said, “Let’s get to work.”
Laddering
Laddering is an exercise that helps you zero in on the most effective messaging for your product. (It’s also the subject of Week 8 in my Brand Strategy course at Stern. Note: I invented the term for my course, vs. its original definition.) Messaging that doesn’t just highlight your brand’s strengths but de-positions a competitor, and illuminates a weakness. You cast yourself in a specific light that elevates your cheekbones while adding 15 lbs to your foe’s silhouette.
Apple CEO Tim Cook is a master at laddering. In the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, he declared that “Privacy is a human right.” This was a clear jab at Facebook and Google, highlighting Apple’s commitment to privacy while contrasting it with its competitors’ weaknesses.
The George W. Bush campaign in 2004 executed one of the best laddering strategies in marketing history. They ran an ad titled “Whichever Way the Wind Blows,” showing John Kerry windsurfing as a metaphor for his flip-flopping on issues. This indirectly cast Bush as resolute and consistent, while painting Kerry as indecisive.
We have an easier time believing people are bad vs. good — it’s a survival mechanism to assume the person/animal in front of you is foe, not friend. With a 38% approval rating, Harris has work to do. She also has a lot to work with. Her identity, record, and personal story are disco from seventies laddering heaven. Also she has a not-so-secret weapon; she’s not Donald Trump.
So, the contrasts the Harris campaign should illuminate:
Future/Past
A week ago, Trump looked relatively young, strong, and mentally fit. But that’s only because Biden was none of those things. It’s ironic that Trump’s age/vitality has morphed from his biggest strength to his biggest weakness in a weekend. Age will continue to be a big issue in the campaign.
The contrasts between Harris and Trump are stark. He’s an overweight 78-year-old white man with a spray-on tan; she’s an attractive, fit 59-year-old Black and South Asian woman. He rambles, swinging from dumb and dangerous to conspiracy theory. While Harris has found a better footing recently, her public orations as VP were best described as yogababble. However, I believe she’ll win the debate(s) just by showing up. As Kennedy and Reagan demonstrated, it’s not not what you say but how you look. Harris makes Trump look like Biden.
Good Economy/Bad Economy
We haven’t had a normal election in more than a decade. But even in abnormal elections, economic concerns — jobs, inflation, wealth, income inequality, etc. — top the list for voters. As the Ragin’ Cajun said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
The bad news: Voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy 51% to 39%. The good news: The Biden economy has a lot to celebrate. Impressive job growth. Markets touching record highs. The strongest GDP growth and lowest inflation in the G7. The VP needs to come armed with receipts re: job creation and growth, and be prepared to fact-check Trump’s lies in real time at a debate (if there is one) and on social media. Her campaign will need to do a better job weaponizing surrogates to stay on message and pound home the strength of the economy. While it’s fun to mock J.D. Vance, and the cable networks love the outrage it foments, moderates vote on more boring shit (see above: the economy).
Prosecutor/Convicted Felon
Hours after being released from prison, former Trump adviser Peter Navarro spoke at the RNC. Steve Bannon couldn’t be there, as he’s serving a four-month sentence. Paul Manafort, Trump’s 2016 campaign chair, did time before Trump pardoned him. But wait, there’s more. George Papadopoulos, Rick Gates, Michael Cohen, Roger Stone, Allen Weisselberg, and 700-plus Jan. 6 defendants have either been convicted of crimes or pleaded guilty.
Harris began her career as a prosecutor and served as the attorney general of California. She prosecuted sex offenders; 26 women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct, and in E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case against Trump, the judge concluded that he had committed rape. Harris shut down predatory for-profit colleges; Trump University was a scam. After the housing crisis, she took on the banks and got back $25 billion for California taxpayers; Trump was a slumlord who was found liable in civil court for defrauding banks.
She’s running for president. He is running from prison.
Reproductive Freedom/The Handmaid’s Tale
For decades, the religious right worked to erode the separation of church and state and overturn Roe. Trump and his Supreme Court justices ultimately delivered on that promise in Dobbs. The decision restricts reproductive freedom and endangers lives. It’s also deeply unpopular across the political spectrum. I moved to London two years ago. In that time, the most shameful shift in America is that 1 in 5 women must now travel outside their state to terminate a pregnancy. It will never be 5 in 5 — this isn’t a war on women, but a war on poor women, and wealthy people will always have access to family planning. If age will be the implicit issue in the campaign, bodily autonomy should be the explicit issue for Harris.
Harris’s best moment in the Senate was when she asked Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh if he could think of any law that gives the government the power to make decisions about the male body. Go back and watch the exchange. It’s a perfect ad that should run in every market nonstop.
Harris fights for reproductive freedom, Trump fights for White Christian nationalists.
Glass Ceiling
In 1960 the conventional wisdom held that America wasn’t ready for a Catholic president. In 2008, America wasn’t ready for a Black president, especially one named Barack Hussein Obama. In 2020 we weren’t ready for a Black South Asian woman to be VP. In hindsight, historic breakthroughs feel like destiny. But before you break one, doing so feels risky.
We’ve come a long way on gender. Geraldine Ferraro threw a rock at the glass ceiling when she ran for VP in 1984. In her first campaign for Congress, her slogan was: “Finally, a tough Democrat.” She won. But in the 1984 presidential race she frequently faced questions like, “Are you tough enough to be president?” Thirty-two years later, Trump didn’t attack Hillary Clinton for being weak. He called her “Crooked Hillary.” She cracked the glass ceiling, winning the popular vote. Meanwhile, America continues to normalize female leadership as it spreads across the world. Also, many moderates likely look back to 2016 and realize the woman would have been the better choice.
Project 2025
Harris should wrap Trump in Project 2025, intertwining his presidency with the manifesto for what the country would look like under his leadership. Haven’t heard of Project 2025? Only 20% of voters say they know about the 900-page Heritage Foundation plan to dramatically rewrite life in America. A few of its greatest hits: purging civil servants and staffing the federal bureaucracy with loyalists, eliminating the Department of Education, using the military to round up and deport millions of people, banning porn. This isn’t a policy agenda, it’s a blueprint for White Christian Nationalism. Even the Kremlin and the Stasi allowed weather reports.
Harris will face her own challenges after the honeymoon period comes to an abrupt end in the next week. Trump will position her as an überliberal, a failed border czar who has yet to receive a single vote or delegate for president. I imagine the Trump campaign running — and they’d be smart to — a 24/7 media loop of footage of the Zombie Apocalypse of Useful Idiots on campuses after Oct. 7. In addition, live footage from the downtowns across democratically controlled cities on the West Coast. In sum, de-position of the Democratic party and show the underbelly of institutions/metros controlled by Democrats.
Free Gift
A free gift w/purchase, or the only thing I worry the Harris campaign will miss in their messaging is even more boring. A surprising number of young voters highlighted the growing deficit as an area of concern. Harris stating “we need to get our fiscal house in order” with tough talk re cauterizing reckless spending would piss off the far-left while warming her to moderates. The former are in her ear every day, the latter will decide the election. It would also have a nice ring to it (i.e., true) as Harris is more moderate on economic issues than the perception.
Democrat’s strength is their weakness — idealism. However, the quest and vision for a better world often strays into a mix of indignance and denial. If Democrats were solely focused on beating Trump, they’d pick Mitt Romney as VP (after throwing up in your mouth, think about it) and Biden would step down to let Harris run as the incumbent.
And one final thing: Donald Trump is a rapist and an insurrectionist.
Life is so rich,
P.S. Brian Merchant, author of Blood in the Machine, will sit down with Section on Aug. 14 to discuss the backlash to AI — what’s legitimate and what’s overblown. RSVP here (it’s free).