Despite primary wins, Trump’s grip on power is slipping
Senators are unhappy with Trump; so are voters.
Trump seems to rule the GOP with an iron fist, as he showed last week when Rep. Thomas Massie went down (for now…) in Kentucky. Between him and Sen. Bill Cassidy, also ousted by primary voters this month, the list of anti-Trump Republicans is getting smaller, and nobody seems to want to speak out against his worst impulses.
But that narrative is an illusion fed to throngs of pro-Trump influencers who are blind to the reality on the ground.
For one thing, while Trump is picking off his enemies, he still needs them to pass legislation, and he may end up with fewer allies next year. More importantly, a large share of GOP voters are unhappy and don’t trust this administration. And while the Republicans in Congress are too afraid to say it in public, new reporting says they’re getting antsy.
The good news for now is that it puts Trump’s worst ideas at risk, including the outrageous $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund announced this week and his billion-dollar White House ballroom. And as we approach November, it could make him less powerful than ever.
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Trump controls the primaries…
Trump has an iron grip on GOP primary voters. In more than 100 U.S. Senate, House, and gubernatorial races held so far this year, candidates he endorsed have won 100% of the time. Yes, Trump endorses in many uncompetitive races to pad his percentages, but it’s his highest endorsement success rate in a midterm election. He’s lost a handful of state legislative races, mainly in Indiana, but overall, the Trump endorsement machine is firing on all cylinders.
His hold over primary voters is so strong that he can use them to oust antagonists, as we’ve seen in two high-profile races this month. It began in mid-May after Trump endorsed a rival to Sen. Bill Cassidy, one of the seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump in his February 2021 impeachment trial. Cassidy ended up in third place in his primary, taking just under a quarter of the total votes. Then, last week, it was libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie’s turn. Trump endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th district, who beat Massie by 10 points, in a race that saw $32 million in ad spending.
Republican congresspeople stay in line with Trump because they know the fate that awaits them if they speak out. That is truer now than ever before.
…but he’s unleashed the outcasts
The problem with using primaries to defeat your enemies is that they’re still in office until the election cycle is complete. Even with 53 seats and a VP to break ties, Trump doesn’t have a MAGA majority in the Senate.
Mavericks: First, there’s Sens. Murkowski and Collins, who also voted to convict Trump and like their independent reputations.
Retirees: Sens. McConnell and Tillis are no sure thing either. McConnell slammed Trump’s 1776 fund this week, calling it an “utterly stupid, morally wrong” slush fund, and Tillis said it was “beyond the pale.”
Ousted: Right after he lost his primary, Cassidy also slammed the slush fund, and flipped to support limiting Trump’s war powers in the Senate.
Another libertarian in Kentucky: Massie wasn’t the only anti-war headache from Kentucky. Senate stalwart Rand Paul also voted to limit Trump’s war powers and has been a consistent critic on Iran.
Put that together, and Trump only has up to 47 votes for his worst ideas. And that’s before the midterms, where he’ll need to hold on to seats in Ohio and Texas, among others, to keep steady.
Republican voters are starting to doubt him
The MAGA crowd loves to dismiss people like Tillis and Cassidy – and even McConnell! – as a group of rejects who are out of step with Republican voters.
The polls tell a different story. On the defining issues of the midterms, a significant share of GOP voters is expressing dissatisfaction with the president. In the latest Fox News Poll, 1 in 5 Republicans said they disapproved of Trump’s performance. On foreign policy, it’s 1 in 4 GOP voters. On inflation, it’s just ticked over to a majority. Primary voters might still be with him, but the wider Republican base is not.
We already know that Republicans face a turnout issue during the midterms, so this is a liability. Some of these voters will “come home” to the GOP, but these are big numbers. They’re worse among independents and moderates, who Trump and the Republicans relied on to win in 2024.
Fox also asked about whether the assassination attempt against Trump in April was real or staged, and 10% of Republicans said they thought it was the latter.
Trump seems willing to let his voters leave. It’s not just the revenge tour stuff – though the fund and the ballroom will prove to be unpopular – but the deeply unpopular big ticket items, especially tariffs and Iran. As Democrats come to accept that Biden and Harris were flawed, they should welcome these potential new voters with open arms.
The backrooms are getting antsy
Finally, while Republican congresspeople know better than to complain about Trump in public, they’re starting to speak up privately. Politico reported this week that in GOP backrooms, congresspeople are starting to “squirm” about Trump’s revenge tour. A meeting between senators with Attorney General Blanche this week about the “weaponization” fund went poorly; and it’s likely that they’ll remove the billion dollars Trump wants for his ballroom from a new bill.
This is still the Trump Party. The problem is that a surprising number of Republican voters aren’t happy with it. Knowing they’re about to face that electorate, GOP congresspeople are growing more anxious about their fate. When you look at those factors together, Trump doesn’t seem so powerful anymore.
Scott, I just started following you after listening to you on Diary of a CEO. I know you are Progressive (as I used to be, before progressive turned totalitarian) but also thoughtful and respectful. I look at those faces, and think if the Republican party splits, and that group adds Tulsi Gabbard, MTG, Massie, and a few others, they would have a third party that would win the general in 2028, especially if the Democrats choose somebody who can’t possibly appeal to more than a third of the country. I wonder what your thoughts are on that.