Forget the Headlines. In New York, the Battle Between Progressives and the Establishment Ended in a Draw.
And the real battle comes in November.
There are plenty of numbers to sift through after last Tuesday’s primaries. But for Democrats, only one really matters: 218. Win that many seats and we get the gavel.
You’ve seen the stories: Three Mamdani-backed candidates. Three wins. Two incumbents taken out along the way. It was an embarrassment for the Democratic establishment, which counted those losing incumbents as two of its most important members.
But it wasn’t the only battle happening in New York. Upstate, in the picturesque Hudson Valley, moderate Democrat Cait Conley delivered a convincing win against her opponents – including a progressive – and will now go head-to-head with Rep. Mike Lawler in November. Here, the establishment wing scored a crucial victory.
Ultimately, it’s wins like those that will matter in November. The battle over Democratic socialism vs centrism will rage on, but the war to flip the House ends in November. In that fight, the establishment is winning. Not only did they get Conley, they also won primaries across the state map this week – and even in Utah – that could make the difference between a Democratic and Republican majority next year.
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Moderates took a huge loss in the city this week
Would you believe us if we told you that two Democrats who support Medicare for All lost their primaries in New York on Tuesday? That’s exactly what happened. Both Rep. Dan Goldman (10th district) and Rep. Adriano Espaillat (13th district) voted in favor of the legislation this year. And they weren’t just progressive on healthcare. Both were card-carrying members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Espaillat even served as deputy whip!
But the hunger of young progressive voters in New York City knows no bounds. Primary voters sent them packing in favor of Brad Lander and Darializa Avila Chevalier, who saw that Israel was the fault line. They both called Israel’s military actions in Gaza a genocide, pledged to end financial and weapons support to the country, and rejected money from AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby group.
A socialist economic and anti-Israel message got them both across the finish line. You’ll notice, though, that one win didn’t look like the other. While Lander delivered a thumping 32-point victory over Goldman, Chevalier only eked out a 3.5-point win. Geography played a key role in that difference, but consider also her far-left positions on immigration, police, and prisons… her anti-American social media posts… the list goes on. Those were clearly off-putting to some Democratic voters in her own district; more importantly, they’re going to be catnip for the GOP, who will make them a centerpiece of their national strategy.
In any case, this was a giant loss for the establishment wing of the party, who are down two members to the Democratic Socialists of America (which endorsed Chevalier and another progressive candidate, Claire Valdez).
But the establishment got their candidate in one of the most important races of the cycle
It’s a different story upstate. In the 17th district, about 20 miles north of the city and stretching up the Hudson River Valley, it’s a battle of the ‘burbs. That’s true even for a primary, and this district was home to one of the most competitive Dem-on-Dem races this cycle.
On Tuesday, Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran and former national security official, beat two competitive candidates, including Effie Phillips-Staley, a local official in Tarrytown who ran firmly to the left of the field. Conley won her race by 18 points and will now try to flip the seat from Republican Mike Lawler, who, thanks to the district’s swingy suburban voters, is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle.
You can win Manhattan and Brooklyn on an ultra-progressive message. Our view is that in the Hudson Valley, you can’t. That’s why Conley, who enjoyed the support of establishment groups like VoteVets and EMILYs List, and endorsements from neighboring Rep. Pat Ryan and former 17th district Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, is an ideal candidate to take out Lawler. The establishment notched a clear win here.
Importantly, it wasn’t the only victory for the establishment – or the wider pragmatic left – in New York last Tuesday.
In competitive New York races, the moderate wing is fielding high-quality candidates
Let’s start with New York’s 3rd district, out on Long Island. It’s currently held by Rep. Tom Suozzi, who wrestled the seat away from (gulp) former Rep. George Santos in a special election two years ago. The congressman, who co-chairs the Problem Solvers Caucus, is a perfect fit for the kind of wealthy, suburban district this is. Suozzi took home a whopping 79.6% of the vote in his primary on Tuesday; he faces his former rival Mike LiPetri in November.
Moving up to the 4th, also on Long Island, you’ll find a similar mix of voters and a similar Democratic candidate: it’s Rep. Laura Gillen, who flipped this seat from the GOP in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Gillen is a pragmatist’s dream: a former attorney, town supervisor, and New Democrat who was endorsed by House Democratic leadership. Her primary was uncontested, while Cook Political Report calls the general election, where she’ll face Republican Jeanine Driscoll, a toss-up.
Finally, head way up to the 19th district, from the Hudson Valley through the Catskills and into the Southern Tier. Moderate Rep. Josh Riley flipped this seat by just two points in 2024; since then, the former attorney has emerged as one of the strongest bipartisan legislators in Congress. Like Gillen, he’s a New Democrat and has the support of the DCCC.
This is just one state, in just one night. Even on the same night last Tuesday, moderates scored a win in Utah with Ben McAdams, the former congressman and county mayor. He defeated several progressives in the state’s newly redrawn (and heavily liberal) 1st district, where he’s favored to beat his Republican opponent a few months from now.
Yes, you read a lot about the socialist takeover of the Democratic Party last week. Yes, that wing got more powerful after scoring three victories in the city. No, that doesn’t mean the establishment is dead. Between Conley in the hotly competitive 17th district, and moderate Dem candidates across the state, pragmatism is still alive and well. That’s a relief for the midterms.