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Frank  Beal's avatar

Good analysis, Ed. How many years of legitimate net profits at a reasonable rate will it take to "pay back" the billions that have already been set ablaze? When will the companies finally make one dollar more than has been put in?

Value the stocks that way, and they're are largely worthless. This is "number go up" speculating.

John Charles Harman's avatar

I have people manage my money. That said. Ai is definitely going to create tremendous wealth and is solving many challenges in all fields.

Freedom

Freedom is the fuel that ignites Creativity & Compassion.

NOT Socialism NOT Communism & Definitely NOT Religious Theocracies! You may be hell bent on “Hate” because you “Don’t Like” Trump or simply brainwashed & a parrot because you refuse to study history… unfortunately you are enslaved in your own foolishness. #Peace comes after #Freedom No political/religious dogma kills a desire for FREEDOM. After WW2 133 out of 200 Nations left monarchies, dictatorships & theocracies to become Democratic in some form. The TREND worldwide is STILL towards forms of Democracy and that is FACTUAL! Just because Communists, Socialists, Dictatorships FLOOD social media/media with PROPAGANDA & fools repeat it (mainly for clicks & fake popularity), does NOT mean it is a trend.

We produce #music & #videos in various languages & genres.

https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DZ06evO3fX5Gb

Eli Carleton's avatar

There are some very funny comparisons in this article that are likely truer than they are satirical https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/ai-economics-for-dummies

Kristi Pihl's avatar

"Anthropic’s SpaceX contract (one of its largest expenditures) was heavily discounted (for reasons unclear)" The reasons are because Elon is petty and wants to help Dario with his pre-IPO narrative because they're both still mad at Sam for, in their words, stealing OpenAI. The Real Housewives of Generative AI.

Dave's avatar

I’ve been paying attention for a while, and I gotta say, on all fronts, AI just looks kinda… stupid.

Les Barclays's avatar

Another thing no one seems to know or has the answer to is "what is the return on tokens?"

The shift from tokenmaxxing to tokenminimising within companies & the rise of open source models are direct questions to the profitability of LLMs at scale. Anthropic has a chance to become profitable but that hinges on crazy revenue growth whilst managing compute costs. Don't really see it with OpenAI in my view.

What I believe to be the future is specialised edge models as opposed to a GPT.