It’s been 16 years since Democrats had the keys to more than half the governor’s mansions. This November, we can finally change that.

Don’t forget about the state executives.

When you watch the election results unfold on November 3, you’ll see a whole lot of maps, charts, and math focused on the House and Senate balance of power.

Then there’s a graphic you rarely see: a map showing who won the 36 gubernatorial races.

There are enormous stakes in these elections, including who will oversee the certification of presidential election results in 2028, as well as reproductive rights, healthcare, education, and redistricting.

Democratic donors need to hear this message. According to Politico’s Jonathan Martin, small-dollar donors have been so busy giving to (admittedly exciting) candidates like James Talarico and Adam Hamilton that they’ve been sleeping on the governors.

As Martin reported this week, that’s given Republicans a LOT of breathing room:

For the remainder of the campaign, Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats on television about 6-to-1 in Florida, more than 3-to-1 in Texas, 2.5-to-1 in Georgia, more than 2-to-1 in Wisconsin, and only slightly more narrowly in Ohio and Nevada.

The public and private polling in these contests shows they’re competitive, and GOP strategists tell me that, were it not for their financial advantage, they’d lose most of them.

Today, with 22 days left before the big night, we’re looking at five states where the governor’s election is the only competitive statewide race on the ballot this year: Arizona, Florida, Oregon, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

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Arizona: Katie Hobbs faces another dangerous opponent

You’d think Trump would have learned his lesson. He tried to get the MAGA base to show up for Kari Lake twice and failed because voters thought she was just too extreme to run a state.

Two years later and here we are again. This time, the candidate is Andy Biggs, who was just as active as Lake in pushing the Big Lie about the 2020 election. To this day, Biggs still hasn’t acknowledged that President Biden won that election, yet now wants the keys to the governor’s mansion.

The woman standing in his way is Katie Hobbs, who has spent most of the last four years vetoing bills by the Republican-controlled state legislature. She’s on the ballot again this year, and with oversight of the certification of the next presidential election on the line, it’s a must-win state for the Democrats.

Florida: Can David Jolly make Florida a battleground again?

The conditions for a Democratic win in Florida could not be better. The last time this race was open was 2018, and it was incredibly tight: Ron DeSantis won the race by just 0.4 points, or around 32,000 votes.

Eight years later, it’s open again in what is likely a worse political environment for Republicans.

And this time around, the candidate matchup is also more favorable for the Democrats. The party’s candidate is David Jolly, a former congressman and lawyer running a campaign focused on affordability, health, and better education. He is a seasoned politician with a moderate track record and an aversion to the culture wars. Check!

Over on the other side, it’s Byron Donalds, a Trump ultra-loyalist (well, not quite), who has struggled on the trail all year.

Most political analysis points to Donalds’ relationship with Trump as his biggest liability this cycle, but it goes beyond that. Florida’s population has grown by 1.7 million, and with that, so have costs. Gas and groceries are one thing to fix; property taxes and soaring rents are much tougher problems.

Jolly believes his race is winnable if donors start paying attention.

Nevada: Democrats try to take down an election-denying incumbent

Former Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo flipped Nevada to the GOP in 2022 after the COVID-19 pandemic decimated Nevada’s hospitality-led economy. Now he faces a tight reelection battle thanks to Aaron Ford, the Democrats’ star recruit to flip it back.

Ford is Nevada’s Attorney General and is running on his record. He points, for example, to his $1.2 billion in opioid settlements against the major drug companies to show that he can be trusted on lowering drug prices and relieving medical debt.

He’s also emphasizing housing and cost-of-living pressures, energy costs, and, as the “make-stuff-cost-less” candidate, he says he won’t allow data center construction to increase Nevadans’ costs by “one penny.”

This is another state where the election certification stakes couldn’t be higher. Lombardo said in 2021 that he didn’t know if the results of the 2020 election were accurate, and has kept company with one of the ‘fake electors’ involved in Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 result.

Oregon: How is this even competitive?

If Democrats want to win back the majority of states, they’ll have to keep their eyes on Oregon. Four years ago, Tina Kotek beat her Republican rival, Christine Drazan, in an election driven by reproductive rights.

Now they’re facing off again, and abortion is less prominent on the trail.

Instead, Kotek is struggling with what The Oregonian has described as four major issues happening at the same time: housing, schools, mental health, and economic sluggishness.

Add Portland’s crime headlines into the mix (despite the fact that violent crime is down), and it’s shaping up to be a close race.

Wisconsin: Even in a bad year, the GOP has a chance to flip a 2028 swing state

Finally, to Wisconsin, where Democratic primary voters hoped that David Crowley would keep the state in the party’s hands this November.

Crowley has the support of the Democratic establishment, including outgoing Governor Tony Evers, who has been campaigning with him all year.

Yet polling has this race extremely close, with Crowley just three points ahead of Republican rival Tom Tiffany in the latest Marquette poll.

Crowley is running a disciplined campaign: he wants to create more apprenticeship programs, make it easier to start small businesses, and expand healthcare access.

But remember, Tiffany is outspending him 2-to-1, and in one of the more Republican-leaning Rust Belt swing states.

Wisconsin will be critical to either party’s path to victory in 2028. Democrats cannot afford to lose this race.