Maine is Messy. Until We Hear Otherwise, It Also Remains a Top Opportunity for Democrats.

A Democratic Senate majority relies on Platner.

What a mess. By now, you’ve seen the New York Times’ story on Graham Platner, detailing aspects of the Senate hopeful’s past that range from disappointing to disturbing. Platner has denied the most serious allegations. At the same time, the reporting, especially on his awareness of the meaning of his tattoo, flies in the face of previous statements he’s made.

It comes days before a primary election that could put Platner on the top of the ballot in the Pine Tree State this November.

There’s a lot to unpack about what standards Democrats should accept in their candidates, whether flawed people can redeem themselves, and how much lecturing we should take from a GOP that couldn’t care less about the moral failings of their candidates (our view: none at all).

Today, we’re focusing on the cold, hard math. Maine has, after all, been thought of as a must-win state for Democrats this cycle. Do these revelations immediately change the Senate math? And what does that math look like without Maine? Answers, below.

Programming note: Every Wednesday, Jessica and Aaron Parnas host Raging Perspectives, a new weekly livestream for all our Substack subscribers. This week, we’re back in our regular time slot at 12 PM ET. Submit your questions in the comments section below that you’d like answered live on the show.

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The easiest road still goes through Maine

Redistricting has made the House map complicated. In the Senate, it’s simple: if Democrats can pick up four seats without losing any they have now (more on that later), they get the majority.

The first and best opportunity is in North Carolina, a state that has been inching bluer thanks to population growth in city and suburban centers. Democrats might have had a real shot at this in the last midterms, and they certainly got close in 2024: Harris lost by 3.2 points, making it as competitive as Nevada and more Democratic than Arizona. In this environment, it’s ripe for picking. Democrats have their ideal candidate in Gov. Roy Cooper, the twice-elected governor who defeated a sitting Republican in 2016.

We got an indication of how strong the national environment is for Democrats in Ohio this week, when a new Fox News Poll showed former Sen. Sherrod Brown up eight points on Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted; 53%-45%. That’s an exceptional lead in a state that voted for President Trump by 11 points in 2024 and sent Brown packing in the same election (though only by 3.6 points). Trump’s favorability is underwater by 15 points in the state and could sink further as inflation continues to rise.

We have less information about Alaska, where Democrats hope former Rep. Mary Peltola can do the heavy lifting: while the state voted for Trump by 13 points in the last presidential cycle, Peltola won her House seat with a statewide pool of voters by 3 points in 2022 (and only lost by 2.4 in 2024). Peltola has carved out a local issues lane in that state and, thanks in part to the state’s geography and culture, has avoided the national spotlight. She’s well-positioned to make a close race out of it this year.

Easier than both Ohio and Alaska, though, is Maine. The math speaks for itself: this is a state that supported Harris by 7 points in 2024, and the most recent polling available had Platner clearly leading at 51% to Sen. Susan Collins’ 42%. Yes, Collins has over-performed some polling in the past, and of course, we don’t have any fresh surveys since the latest stories about Platner. The wisest course of action, therefore, is to wait at least two weeks to see to what extent – if any – voters have changed their tune. Barring a crash in his support, Maine is still one of the top pickup opportunities for the left.

If Maine is off the map, it’s Iowa or Texas

If Democrats move their attention elsewhere, their next best chances are in the Midwest or down South.

The fifth pickup opportunity is in Iowa, where Democrats got two gifts last Tuesday. First, a win for the nomination by state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist who currently represents the 20th District, including parts of Pottawattamie County. That’s a bigger deal than you think: according to Mother Jones, the county hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1968. On the governor’s side, moderate state Auditor Rob Sand will meet “MAHA” farmer Zach Lahn in the general after Trump’s preferred candidate lost.

Right after that is Texas. We’ve talked about the Lone Star State extensively, and especially the Democrats’ candidate, state Rep. James Talarico, both an impressive man and talented communicator. He has a record of politically correct comments that – as absurd as we’ve argued this is – might be a liability of its own; call it a “reverse Platner” problem. There are two questions in Texas: first, is the political environment so bad for Republicans that it allows Dems to take a state they haven’t won in 38 years? And second, will voters see that Paxton’s disturbing history is worse than Talarico’s “woke” baggage?

Democrats must also play defense

Winning any four of the six states above gets the job done – but only if the party doesn’t lose any seats either. In this cycle, the three to watch are Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Based on the 2024 cycle, Georgia is the toughest of the three, so Democrats can take comfort in star incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff. He’s been leaning into corruption (not exactly difficult with this White House, even after AG Blanche killed the Trump slush fund) and the billions we’re spending in Iran. He’ll likely compete against controversial Rep. Mike Collins or former football coach Derek Dooley in November.

In Michigan, another state Trump flipped in 2024, Democrats don’t yet enjoy the unity that they have at the top of the ticket elsewhere. It’s a three-way race for the nomination between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and the progressive favorite, Abdul El-Sayed, who has endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, among others. The Republicans have this race buttoned up with presumptive nominee Rep. Mike Rogers.

Finally, there’s New Hampshire. Democrats should feel confident about this state in a Trump midterm cycle, but there’s an asterisk: yet another Sununu is on the ballot. This time, it’s the former Gov. Chris Sununu’s brother, John. That family still has enormous sway and fundraising power. It’s one to watch.

Maine’s already messy. It could get messier. But if Democrats are serious about taking back a majority this November, it stays on the board until we see any data that says otherwise.