It is called ending a sentence with a "Preposition", Mia, not a Proposition. And Yes, I am inclined to agree with Burry. I am worried about the crash given the godawful international and trade situation, let alone the waste of capital in AI.
Kudos to your son, Scott! I too use gravity as the ultimate metaphor for the arbiter of reality. Whether it’s certain political beliefs or a boom that seems to last forever, I know eventually gravity will win. Sometimes with a vengeance.
I’ve been wondering how much fuel from the pandemic is still in the economy. All the government stimulus and households essentially being forced to save during that time can’t last. Could there be a crash coming due to both AI investments and pandemic-related stimulus faltering around the same time? Or could the last of the stimulus effects washing out be a big domino if a crash is coming?
I was very interested to hear about why a sentence ending with a proposition would ever _not_ be allowed. Then I realized it was a typo. Nice to see it happens to the best of us, and something the rule itself is worth thinking about. 😅😅
Can each of the players who are responsible for all the capex succeed sufficiently to justify their valuations? Can there possibly be enough cumulative future earnings? If not -- and I don't see even a rosy scenario in which there can be -- things are going to get pretty damned brittle.
I expect some yacht downsizing to occur. Oh, and real people -- who will be blamed -- doing more scraping than even these dicey days.
Given that instituitional investors usually demand returns within 1-2 years, it’s surprising to see such unprecedented market patience for AI's massive, unproven infrastructure spend. anyone has any thought on what specific catalyst will finally break this tho?
I also worry about all of the states, counties, and municipalities offering tax breaks, subsidies, and incentives to lure these tremendous data centers into our communities. I can’t imagine that these facilities require a lot of humans or will be generating a lot of payroll. So who will be left with the tab, the impacts to the environment and the tremendous drain on precious water & air resources in the long run?
The two cases aren't symmetric, which is what the bull column quietly reveals. Cloud revenue accelerating from 29% to 54% is the bull's strongest number, and per the same piece roughly 70% of Microsoft's AI sales came from OpenAI, with Amazon and Alphabet reportedly similar. So the acceleration is substantially the concentration, measured at the other end of the pipe. Whether that's a boom or a funding risk turns on one question the earnings can't answer: what OpenAI and Anthropic can raise next. Two readings of a single cash flow, and only the label differs.
For Anthropic, Google and Amazon are their cloud host. Amazon owns 8% of Anthropic. Open Ai is heavily owned by Microsoft. Anthropic and OpenAI were birthed out of BAIR labs at Berkeley(my home). BAIR is DOE backed with funding from amazon, Google, Microsoft, and meta.
Anthropic and OpenAI are subsidiaries of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
Anthropic and open ai earn money. Anthropic announced yesterday they made 11.5bn last quarter from corporate customers(not Amazon or Google). A 1400% increase yoy!
Anthropic uses that incoming revenue to pay Amazon and Google for data center power, hosting, and specialized AI hardware (like AWS Trainium and Google TPUs).
This is a very normal methodology for U.S. corporations. Oil companies, automakers, home mortgages, etc. Berkshire Hathaway reinsures all of the insurance companies why aren’t we criticizing them?! The insurance companies wouldn’t exist if they didn’t have reinsurance.
A repricing is inevitable. That’s not the problem. When Ai becomes a government owned and regulated common’s (post bailout based on economic and national security interest) the foundation of reality will be in the hands of the venal and the stupid.
Current economic and social models are no longer useful. We need new tools. Ai amplification across domains is not liner. Improvements in each domain amplify each other.
Think of an explosion of the space of possibilities collapsed in each iteration.
We need new models. That’s where my work is focused. If we can not see where we are going we have no way to plan for it.
GDP, CPI, money supply and every other economic and societal gauge are too slow and infinitely fungible.
Please explain the huge gap btwn market performance and the experience of the middle class. Record highs and profits on one end, junkflation and penny pinching on the other. Does society only now thrive based on how its wealthiest, most self-serving profiteers are doing? If so, the bears are at the gate…what will finally tip the scales?
It is called ending a sentence with a "Preposition", Mia, not a Proposition. And Yes, I am inclined to agree with Burry. I am worried about the crash given the godawful international and trade situation, let alone the waste of capital in AI.
I didn’t read the article, but maybe she meant “proposition”? Made us talk about it, right?!
Indeed! Catalyzing conversation is one of our main objectives at Prof G Media... even through our typos :)
Kudos to your son, Scott! I too use gravity as the ultimate metaphor for the arbiter of reality. Whether it’s certain political beliefs or a boom that seems to last forever, I know eventually gravity will win. Sometimes with a vengeance.
I’ve been wondering how much fuel from the pandemic is still in the economy. All the government stimulus and households essentially being forced to save during that time can’t last. Could there be a crash coming due to both AI investments and pandemic-related stimulus faltering around the same time? Or could the last of the stimulus effects washing out be a big domino if a crash is coming?
“SpaceX is an amazing space launch and satellite business that has a near monopoly. But even if it doubles, which it eventually will, (…)”.
And this exactly why I own the stock. It will eventually double, merge with Tesla and be a bigger company in 2036 than it is today.
If the share of American adults who identify as gay or lesbian is down, wonder whether the share of bisexuals is on the up 🤔
I was very interested to hear about why a sentence ending with a proposition would ever _not_ be allowed. Then I realized it was a typo. Nice to see it happens to the best of us, and something the rule itself is worth thinking about. 😅😅
Can each of the players who are responsible for all the capex succeed sufficiently to justify their valuations? Can there possibly be enough cumulative future earnings? If not -- and I don't see even a rosy scenario in which there can be -- things are going to get pretty damned brittle.
I expect some yacht downsizing to occur. Oh, and real people -- who will be blamed -- doing more scraping than even these dicey days.
He has been wrong ever since 2007… If you chirp long enough eventually, you’re right. 🤷🏼♂️
Burry is a perma bear. Yes, a crash is coming, it always is. but when?
https://danielsethroberts.substack.com/p/the-coming-compute-commodity?r=8cnl84
Given that instituitional investors usually demand returns within 1-2 years, it’s surprising to see such unprecedented market patience for AI's massive, unproven infrastructure spend. anyone has any thought on what specific catalyst will finally break this tho?
The stock market appears in more recent years to be more a measure of income disparity than wealth in general.
I also worry about all of the states, counties, and municipalities offering tax breaks, subsidies, and incentives to lure these tremendous data centers into our communities. I can’t imagine that these facilities require a lot of humans or will be generating a lot of payroll. So who will be left with the tab, the impacts to the environment and the tremendous drain on precious water & air resources in the long run?
Never had much luck ending a sentence with a proposition.
The two cases aren't symmetric, which is what the bull column quietly reveals. Cloud revenue accelerating from 29% to 54% is the bull's strongest number, and per the same piece roughly 70% of Microsoft's AI sales came from OpenAI, with Amazon and Alphabet reportedly similar. So the acceleration is substantially the concentration, measured at the other end of the pipe. Whether that's a boom or a funding risk turns on one question the earnings can't answer: what OpenAI and Anthropic can raise next. Two readings of a single cash flow, and only the label differs.
For Anthropic, Google and Amazon are their cloud host. Amazon owns 8% of Anthropic. Open Ai is heavily owned by Microsoft. Anthropic and OpenAI were birthed out of BAIR labs at Berkeley(my home). BAIR is DOE backed with funding from amazon, Google, Microsoft, and meta.
Anthropic and OpenAI are subsidiaries of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
Anthropic and open ai earn money. Anthropic announced yesterday they made 11.5bn last quarter from corporate customers(not Amazon or Google). A 1400% increase yoy!
Anthropic uses that incoming revenue to pay Amazon and Google for data center power, hosting, and specialized AI hardware (like AWS Trainium and Google TPUs).
This is a very normal methodology for U.S. corporations. Oil companies, automakers, home mortgages, etc. Berkshire Hathaway reinsures all of the insurance companies why aren’t we criticizing them?! The insurance companies wouldn’t exist if they didn’t have reinsurance.
A repricing is inevitable. That’s not the problem. When Ai becomes a government owned and regulated common’s (post bailout based on economic and national security interest) the foundation of reality will be in the hands of the venal and the stupid.
Current economic and social models are no longer useful. We need new tools. Ai amplification across domains is not liner. Improvements in each domain amplify each other.
Think of an explosion of the space of possibilities collapsed in each iteration.
We need new models. That’s where my work is focused. If we can not see where we are going we have no way to plan for it.
GDP, CPI, money supply and every other economic and societal gauge are too slow and infinitely fungible.
Please explain the huge gap btwn market performance and the experience of the middle class. Record highs and profits on one end, junkflation and penny pinching on the other. Does society only now thrive based on how its wealthiest, most self-serving profiteers are doing? If so, the bears are at the gate…what will finally tip the scales?