Scott, I think this goes deeper than an attention crisis, it’s an infrastructure failure.
We keep blaming platforms for addiction, but they’re doing exactly what they’re designed to do: maximize attention. The real issue is that attention should never have been the foundation layer in the first place.
You’re describing the downstream effects of a system that forces people, especially young people, to navigate life through algorithmic guesswork instead of declared direction.
That’s why everything collapses into the two paths you outlined: play it safe or gamble big. When discovery is broken, those are the only visible options.
The uncomfortable question is this:
What if the next dominant platform doesn’t compete for attention at all?
What if it starts with intent, what people explicitly want, need, or are trying to become, and organizes everything around that signal instead of inferred behavior?
Because right now, we don’t have a content problem or even a motivation problem.
We have a signal problem.
And until intent becomes the primary input layer, we’ll keep producing the exact outcomes you’re calling out, just at larger scale.
The winner of the next decade won’t be the company that captures attention best.
“Appreciate that. We’re just beginning to explore what happens when intent becomes the foundation instead of attention. If you notice anything interesting, I’d genuinely love to hear it.”
Human greed, in particular Capitalist tool greed, knows no bounds at all. It is a mental illness. No society anywhere in the universe of intelligent like can be stable until greed is treated as a mental illness. We are certainly not there yet.
GREED is truly the most terrible challenge of our times, and capitalism is its tool, its means to power and more greed.
Greed is a (contagious) mental illness, an unfillable hole, a hunger that denies justice, a brutal expression of broken egos.
Greed is having a million times as much as the poor and still feeling you don't have enough.
Greed consumes the earth without respite, and is a cancer on humanity.
Greed destroys us and our children and their future.
I won't not argue at all that greed is a huge human failing and illness. But your post reeks of narrow Marxian simplification. You speak as if greed did not exist before capitalism.
Are you kidding? Have you studied the evolution and history of our species? Capitalism is merely a very recent iteration - a few hundred years old - of something much older and deeper. You also don't seem to acknowledge that capitalism is the most effective means of wealth creation and technological progress EVER in the history of mankind. We have more humans alive than ever and more live better than humans ever have...largely due to capitalism. But definitely, it is not effective at distributing in some more equitable way those benefits. I do not deny the terrible costs. But history is history... now and always brutal, terrible, as good and evil are intimately intertwined in the human saga. I thank the universe for the Buddhas, the Da Vincis, the Beethovens who sort of (not sure...) justify the existence of our very challenged and challenging species.
Prof G wrote: 'The unknown unknowns aren’t the emerging economies, they’re DERIVATIVES in Zurich, London, or New York that nobody stress-tested for $110 oil'. Sounds to me like an awfully loud echo of the 'behind the curtain' housing-market derivatives that precipitated the 2007-8 financial crisis. SO. We haven't learned very much. The 'Wizard of Oz' financial geniuses [largely in the biggest investment banks] are still able to -permitted to () to construct these dangerous, flimsily regulated, and worst, for the most part barely understood houses of cards that can collapse around us all. Exactly as in Scott's mention of DJT's 'ordering surf and turf' and the tab - the disruption, instability, outright pain and loss - being shared by all the world.
And even scarier now they want to lessen the high capital reserve requirements for banks, which have been in place since the 08 financial crisis. We never learn anything (at least the billionaire oligarch bankers in charge, don't) And we the 99% always pay the price
"The bankers in London and New York will be fine, but for millions of kids in emerging markets, studying will cease at sunset.". That pretty much sums up this disaster. The Epstein class as I've heard the .1,% called will get richer. Most of the rest of us will suffer. Bangladesh will be worse than the US but the pain will be felt just as it was when you and I were both teens. A sad scary time
Scott, FWIW, the Rumsfeld Matrix may be better thought of with the axes, "Knowledge Status" (with Known and Unknown) and "Awareness Status" (with Aware and Unaware). It is a subtle but important distinction in trying to discern the nuances of each quadrant. As always, thanks for all the great work.
I don’t know about this statement - “But known knowns don’t kill markets. Unknown unknowns do.” I think it more the things you know to be true that aren’t. Everyone knew Lehman was not going to be allowed to fail, until it failed.
In reality, the U.S. is not energy independent and it is now showing. Domestically produced crude oil filters into lighter distillates rather than the heavier ones such as diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel. As a total of petro products these are smaller than things such as gasoline BUT they power key infrastructures.
In a prior part of my career I worked with analysts and learned that they are very good at reading stock charts and being spreadsheet jockeys. What they often missed in the industry I was representing was an understanding of the industrial and trade dynamics. Such analysts probably are what you term “the market.” They often do not have the deep industry knowledge and will not always “price it in” correctly. You may want to seek out more guests who understand factor markets and trade flows rather than spreadsheet jockey types.
The "patients zero" framing is striking — the economic contagion from the Strait of Hormuz closure has spread faster than most analysts expected, and the central banks are now all caught in the same impossible position. What stands out is that the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all held rates this week in what amounts to a synchronized freeze. I wrote up the full picture of that coordinated hold and what it signals: https://thisweekineconomics.substack.com/p/todays-most-important-economic-event
I thought we done fighting over oil this millennium and water was the next battle. Nuclear powers prosecuting conventional wars with non nuclear nations is asymmetry at its finest.First hubris, then nemesis.
Capitalism is the current most significant expression of greed, which itself is a creation of evolution, and destroys all advanced societies, which scientists think happens in only 100-200 years. See the Drake Equation
Scott, I think this goes deeper than an attention crisis, it’s an infrastructure failure.
We keep blaming platforms for addiction, but they’re doing exactly what they’re designed to do: maximize attention. The real issue is that attention should never have been the foundation layer in the first place.
You’re describing the downstream effects of a system that forces people, especially young people, to navigate life through algorithmic guesswork instead of declared direction.
That’s why everything collapses into the two paths you outlined: play it safe or gamble big. When discovery is broken, those are the only visible options.
The uncomfortable question is this:
What if the next dominant platform doesn’t compete for attention at all?
What if it starts with intent, what people explicitly want, need, or are trying to become, and organizes everything around that signal instead of inferred behavior?
Because right now, we don’t have a content problem or even a motivation problem.
We have a signal problem.
And until intent becomes the primary input layer, we’ll keep producing the exact outcomes you’re calling out, just at larger scale.
The winner of the next decade won’t be the company that captures attention best.
It will be the one that understands intent first.
Attention only works if the business model depends on advertising. Humans have known this for at least 200 yrs.
Your comment really resonates with me. I will be thinking about signal and intent. Thank you for sharing your insight.
“Appreciate that. We’re just beginning to explore what happens when intent becomes the foundation instead of attention. If you notice anything interesting, I’d genuinely love to hear it.”
I will be tuned into this and will share what I hear. Thanks again.
Truly appreciate it! 🙏 and looking forward to growing with you along this journey!
Human greed, in particular Capitalist tool greed, knows no bounds at all. It is a mental illness. No society anywhere in the universe of intelligent like can be stable until greed is treated as a mental illness. We are certainly not there yet.
GREED is truly the most terrible challenge of our times, and capitalism is its tool, its means to power and more greed.
Greed is a (contagious) mental illness, an unfillable hole, a hunger that denies justice, a brutal expression of broken egos.
Greed is having a million times as much as the poor and still feeling you don't have enough.
Greed consumes the earth without respite, and is a cancer on humanity.
Greed destroys us and our children and their future.
Greed is death.
I won't not argue at all that greed is a huge human failing and illness. But your post reeks of narrow Marxian simplification. You speak as if greed did not exist before capitalism.
Are you kidding? Have you studied the evolution and history of our species? Capitalism is merely a very recent iteration - a few hundred years old - of something much older and deeper. You also don't seem to acknowledge that capitalism is the most effective means of wealth creation and technological progress EVER in the history of mankind. We have more humans alive than ever and more live better than humans ever have...largely due to capitalism. But definitely, it is not effective at distributing in some more equitable way those benefits. I do not deny the terrible costs. But history is history... now and always brutal, terrible, as good and evil are intimately intertwined in the human saga. I thank the universe for the Buddhas, the Da Vincis, the Beethovens who sort of (not sure...) justify the existence of our very challenged and challenging species.
It is the root of all evil, according to some
How come you never mention Israel’s hold on the US?
This is a war for Greater Israel and a deflection from the Epstein Elite.
Epstein, anytime you need to understand motivation look to the source.
Prof G wrote: 'The unknown unknowns aren’t the emerging economies, they’re DERIVATIVES in Zurich, London, or New York that nobody stress-tested for $110 oil'. Sounds to me like an awfully loud echo of the 'behind the curtain' housing-market derivatives that precipitated the 2007-8 financial crisis. SO. We haven't learned very much. The 'Wizard of Oz' financial geniuses [largely in the biggest investment banks] are still able to -permitted to () to construct these dangerous, flimsily regulated, and worst, for the most part barely understood houses of cards that can collapse around us all. Exactly as in Scott's mention of DJT's 'ordering surf and turf' and the tab - the disruption, instability, outright pain and loss - being shared by all the world.
And even scarier now they want to lessen the high capital reserve requirements for banks, which have been in place since the 08 financial crisis. We never learn anything (at least the billionaire oligarch bankers in charge, don't) And we the 99% always pay the price
"The bankers in London and New York will be fine, but for millions of kids in emerging markets, studying will cease at sunset.". That pretty much sums up this disaster. The Epstein class as I've heard the .1,% called will get richer. Most of the rest of us will suffer. Bangladesh will be worse than the US but the pain will be felt just as it was when you and I were both teens. A sad scary time
Clearly an AI written article... I expect more!
Scott, FWIW, the Rumsfeld Matrix may be better thought of with the axes, "Knowledge Status" (with Known and Unknown) and "Awareness Status" (with Aware and Unaware). It is a subtle but important distinction in trying to discern the nuances of each quadrant. As always, thanks for all the great work.
I don’t know about this statement - “But known knowns don’t kill markets. Unknown unknowns do.” I think it more the things you know to be true that aren’t. Everyone knew Lehman was not going to be allowed to fail, until it failed.
In reality, the U.S. is not energy independent and it is now showing. Domestically produced crude oil filters into lighter distillates rather than the heavier ones such as diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel. As a total of petro products these are smaller than things such as gasoline BUT they power key infrastructures.
In a prior part of my career I worked with analysts and learned that they are very good at reading stock charts and being spreadsheet jockeys. What they often missed in the industry I was representing was an understanding of the industrial and trade dynamics. Such analysts probably are what you term “the market.” They often do not have the deep industry knowledge and will not always “price it in” correctly. You may want to seek out more guests who understand factor markets and trade flows rather than spreadsheet jockey types.
Seeing Kalshi advertised is telling in a dying empire of shite.
The "patients zero" framing is striking — the economic contagion from the Strait of Hormuz closure has spread faster than most analysts expected, and the central banks are now all caught in the same impossible position. What stands out is that the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all held rates this week in what amounts to a synchronized freeze. I wrote up the full picture of that coordinated hold and what it signals: https://thisweekineconomics.substack.com/p/todays-most-important-economic-event
I thought we done fighting over oil this millennium and water was the next battle. Nuclear powers prosecuting conventional wars with non nuclear nations is asymmetry at its finest.First hubris, then nemesis.
Capitalism is the current most significant expression of greed, which itself is a creation of evolution, and destroys all advanced societies, which scientists think happens in only 100-200 years. See the Drake Equation
$39 Trillion. 2% of the presidency, 25% of the debt.