Quick note — this sits right on top of your work on the social contract and economic security.
I'm a 40-year Wall Street credit strategist. My specialty was corporate default and “corporate mortality” (why companies die), which pulled me into modeling AI disruption. One stat I can't unsee: historically, each $1 of GDP growth came with roughly 10¢ of “creative destruction.” My work suggests AI could push that toward ~60¢ — because it hits cognition across every sector at once, fast. Goldman already pegs baseline U.S. displacement at ~11M jobs (6–7%, up to 14% if adoption outruns the S-curve).
We ran this movie with the China Shock — 2M+ jobs, a decade of dead local economies, the politics that followed — and the policy response was too small to matter. I think we can do better and lead the world in it.
Could I send you a one-pager on a “disruption-support doctrine”? Would love your take.
Hi Scott,
Quick note — this sits right on top of your work on the social contract and economic security.
I'm a 40-year Wall Street credit strategist. My specialty was corporate default and “corporate mortality” (why companies die), which pulled me into modeling AI disruption. One stat I can't unsee: historically, each $1 of GDP growth came with roughly 10¢ of “creative destruction.” My work suggests AI could push that toward ~60¢ — because it hits cognition across every sector at once, fast. Goldman already pegs baseline U.S. displacement at ~11M jobs (6–7%, up to 14% if adoption outruns the S-curve).
We ran this movie with the China Shock — 2M+ jobs, a decade of dead local economies, the politics that followed — and the policy response was too small to matter. I think we can do better and lead the world in it.
Could I send you a one-pager on a “disruption-support doctrine”? Would love your take.
— Sam DeRosa-Farag