Last week, the Department of Justice ordered a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The investigation was remarkable, but what happened afterwards was more remarkable.
Spoiler alert: This is not a post about the importance of the Federal Reserve, and why threatening its independence is bad. Most people know why, and if you don’t, google what happened to Turkey when Erdogan played the same game.
I want to talk about something deeper, more primal … I want to talk about winning. Specifically: what it takes to win, and how important winning really is. The President understands this better than anyone. Winning is, arguably, the only thing he cares about. That’s why last week was a pivotal moment in American politics. Why, exactly?
Because Donald Trump lost — and even worse: He lost to a nerd.
Setting The Stage
First, let’s review why the DoJ investigated Powell in the first place. It all revolves around a building renovation. Powell decided the Fed’s nearly hundred-year-old headquarters needed a makeover, as core systems like plumbing and HVAC weren’t working. This was supposed to cost $1.9 billion. As renovations progressed, however, cost estimates grew to $2.5 billion — 30% more than planned. Jerome Powell later spoke in front of Congress to explain why, citing issues such as asbestos and lead paint.
That is the basis of the entire investigation. The administration believes that because Powell went over-budget, he must be doing something illegal. This is obviously ridiculous, and it’s a lot more ridiculous when you compare it to Trump’s own construction project (the ballroom), which has already exceeded its original budget by 100%. Point being, this happens. In fact, according to a database of more than 15,000 construction projects, just 8.5% are completed on time and within budget.
After the investigation was launched, Powell released a video explaining what happened. He claimed that the investigation had nothing to do with the renovation. Rather, it was a threat — a threat to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates.
Usually in these situations, I feel the need to tell the “real story” or expose “the lie.” In this case, that Powell is correct, that the investigation has nothing to do with the Eccles building, and that it has everything to do with interest rates. But while I was gathering my evidence and preparing to make that argument, something incredible happened.
Fatality
Within minutes, Powell’s video was everywhere — X, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram. After 24 hours, the video had received nearly 90 million views. To put that in context, that’s 45 times higher than the average primetime viewership of Fox News. It’s also three times higher than the viewership of the most-streamed NFL game ever. Jerome Powell’s message didn’t just go viral — it went nuclear.
Even more notable was the public response. It was unanimous: Trump was in the wrong. Not only did every living former Fed chair sign a letter condemning the investigation, half a dozen Republican senators spoke out against it too. So did Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase. So did Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America. Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, described it as “murder suicide.”
Most striking, however, was the response from the Reddit army. The “Wall Street Bets” subreddit is home to the memestock traders who’ve historically had it out for large financial institutions (including the Fed). Their read of the situation could not have been clearer: Jerome Powell was the hero. One of the top comments read: “We don’t deserve him. He will go down as one of the greatest Fed chairs of all time.” Another read: “My GOAT doesn’t back down.”
Across the internet, Jerome Powell exploded. From AI memes and sigma edits to good, old-fashioned press releases, users young and old sang their support for the Fed chair, praising him for his “aura.” Soon enough, a slogan had emerged: We Are Jerome Powell. By the end of the week the score was in: Trump lost, and he lost badly.
Nerd Beats Bully
This story is unique for multiple reasons. 1) It’s highly unusual for a Fed Chair to go viral like this. (Most Americans don’t care about the Fed Chair nor know what they even do.) 2) It’s highly unusual for both sides of the aisle to agree on an issue. 3) It’s highly unusual for Trump to lose on the internet. (Sorry, it is.) 4) It’s highly unusual for Trump to lose to someone like Jerome Powell.
Point #4 is the most significant. Trump didn’t lose to a billionaire, or a dictator, or a populist strongman, or a “Chad.” No, Trump lost to a quiet, old-school economist — a “nerd.” Not a rockstar-nerd (Powell is no Michael Burry), an institutional nerd. A nerd who epitomizes the old guard.
This is significant, as it is typically this type of nerd that Trump eats for breakfast. From Jeb Bush to Chuck Schumer, Trump has a knack for beating down bespectacled old white men who represent the status quo. Most of the time, the crowd loves it, because the crowd hates the status quo.
Rightly or wrongly, this hatred has been stewing for years. Public trust in the government is nearing historic lows. Trust in the Fed chair is also near historic lows. These days, being an “expert” is considered an insult. America has decided that institutions are the enemy, and so too are the people who represent them.
So if you’d told me last year that in 2026, an army of Redditors would be rallying behind the Chair of the Federal Reserve, I would not have believed you. The Fed Chair is the embodiment of the institutional class — the crown prince of the swamp. And yet, here we are.
Institutional Is the New Black
I’ve suspected this for some time, but last week was my flashing signal: We’ve reached a “top” on institutional resentment. It’s been a good run. We had DOGE, stop the steal, drain the swamp, and various other movements predicated on the distrust of American institutions. But it appears that governance by corruption and cruelty isn’t a winning ticket in the long run. This isn’t to say Americans love institutions now. Rather, they hate them a little bit less.
Jerome Powell is the poster child for this political shift. He is proof that, for the first time in years, public leaders can be both boring and beloved. In fact, a recent Gallup poll found that Jerome Powell is the most popular political figure in Washington. His approval rating is 44%, 8 points higher than Donald Trump. By the way, that poll was taken in December, before this episode unfolded. I can’t tell you what his approval rating is as of January 19th, but I can tell you it’s higher than 44%.
The political implications of an “institutional top” are tremendous. In recent years, the best way to achieve power has been to position yourself as an anti-institutional insurgent — someone with no political background and no expertise. Think RFK Jr., Pete Hegseth, and of course, the President. It appears those days might be coming to an end. The next generation of winners might look more like Powell: academics and experts who possess the stones to call bullsh*t when they see it. Nerds … who can beat bullies.
It’s possible that I’m getting ahead of myself. Perhaps I overestimate the probability of this sea change because I want it to happen. I want the nerd to beat the bully. At the same time, though, as I watch the hundredth Jerome Powell edit for the two-hundredth time, it also occurs to me: Don’t we all?
Simply Put
You’ll notice I’ve now named this newsletter. As much as “Ed’s Newsletter” was calling my name, a voice in my head told me to grow up and pick a real title. (The voice sounded like Scott?) I’ve gone with Simply Put, because that’s how I want every newsletter to be. I find there’s no better explanation than a simple one. Simplicity is not only easier on the ears, it also reflects a genuine understanding of the issue. Too many writers use complexity as cover for topics they don’t fully understand. I don’t want to give myself that option, so I’m holding myself to it in the title.
Anyway, if you’re enjoying this newsletter, I’d greatly appreciate if you shared it with a clever friend or two. Remember, I’m still a pipsqueak, so I could use all the help I can get. I also appreciate any and all feedback, so please lay it on me in the comments. Tell me why I’m right or wrong. Give me your hot takes. Tell a joke. Sh*tpost me — I don’t care. This newsletter is fun and all, but it’s not worth a damn if we don’t have a good time.
Until next week,
Ed
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