Eight days from now, voters will decide whether to punish President Trump for his broken promises on gas, groceries, forever wars and America’s “golden age.”
While Democrats have opened up a substantial lead in the House, the Senate is a long way from settled. And since control could hinge on Alaska, a state that won’t even finish voting until Wednesday (ET), you are signing up for at least seven hours of nail-biting coverage if you tune in this November 3rd.
Over the next week, you’ll see a lot of guides covering the big races at each hour. “Maine closes at 8PM… Michigan and Texas at 9PM… Don’t forget about Hawaii at midnight!”
This week, we’re taking a different approach. We’re zeroing in on five key races that will be among the first to report their votes.
They won’t singlehandedly let you decide who’s taking the House or Senate. But they will give you a good idea of what kind of night the Democrats are going to be in for. Is it a ripple, wave, or tsunami? Kentucky, Indiana, and Virginia will help you find out.
Programming note: Join Jessica and Aaron Parnas for Raging Perspective again this Wednesday. We’re live at 12PM with an unscripted, unfiltered, unedited conversation about the issues defining this era. As always, we’re also taking your questions! Ask away in the comments section below.
6:00PM: Keep your eyes on Kentucky
There isn’t much Democratic-friendly vote in Kentucky, but the sixth district, which covers Lexington and a range of suburban areas in central Kentucky, is as good as it gets.
Lexington has a high college-educated population and is home to the University of Kentucky, and while the suburban areas are more conservative, the district supported Democratic Governor Andy Beshear by double-digits in his most recent bid.
The seat was most recently held by Republican congressman Andy Barr, who is running to replace Mitch McConnell in the Senate. While that open seat is safe, this district is not. The Republicans have fielded Ralph Alvarado, who pitched himself as a Trump loyalist and “MAHA doctor” in the primary.
Now the House hopeful says he’s an “independent leader” for Kentucky who’ll work with “both sides” to help Kentucky families.
The Democratic candidate is Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor. He’s also emphasizing his independent credentials (“public service over politics”) and a platform to rein in Trump: end the war, stop corruption, and stop cuts to healthcare.
Trump won this district by 15 points in the last presidential election. If Dembo stays competitive in this race early in the night, it’s a sign that Democrats are in for a strong night.
6:00PM: Could the Dems oust an incumbent in Indiana?
It’s a similar story in Indiana’s fifth district. Democrats benefit from suburban voters north of Indianapolis, including highly college-educated areas like Carmel and Fishers.
That helps keep them competitive in a district that also includes some small Republican cities and rural areas (about a quarter of the vote) which are heavily conservative.
This is not an open race. The incumbent is Republican Representative Victoria Spartz, who is seeking her fourth term. She really has challenged her party’s leadership at times. You may remember her from refusing to support Kevin McCarthy during several House speaker votes.
She is best known, however, for her stance on Ukraine, where she was born. Initially a supporter of President Zelensky, she’s since become a fierce critic. She said Zelensky’s government was full of “morons and crooks,” adding that while Putin was evil, he wasn’t a moron. She generally supports Trump’s strategy on the war (if you can call it that…).
Her opponent is Democrat JD Ford, who is running on the same themes as Dembo. An end to “politics as usual” and all the least popular parts of the second Trump admin: taking on tariffs, health cuts, and reforming the system to keep ICE “accountable.”
This district is much more of a reach for the Dems than in Kentucky, but watch the margin. If Democrats keep it close, it’s another sign of a strong night.
7:00PM: Three districts in Virginia will say a lot about the night
By 7pm, you will have bigger races to watch. That’s when Georgia closes, and also South Carolina, where Democrats think they have a real shot thanks to Republican declines with rural voters and Sen. Darline Graham’s bad campaign.
But before those races heat up, there are three House districts in Virginia that will give you the clearest sense of the night on Democrats’ performance.
Virginia’s 2nd district
Let’s start with Democrats’ best shot. Virginia’s second district is located in the perennially competitive Southeast corner of the state. It includes Virginia Beach and parts of Chesapeake. You get a mix of military families, suburban voters and retirees here.
This is a rematch of the 2022 race, when Republican Jen Kiggans first picked it off from the Democrats. Kiggans is a former Navy helicopter pilot and one of the GOP’s stronger candidates, but her support for the Iran war and the “Big, Beautiful Bill” have been seriously unhelpful.
The Democratic candidate is former Rep. Elaine Luria, also a Navy veteran. She only lost by four points in that 2022 race and is back with a vengeance this year, targeting Kiggans for her Iran war support and cuts to health and rural hospitals.
This is one of the best opportunities Democrats have to flip a seat. If they can’t win here, there is no blue wave.
Virginia’s 1st district
The first district is when things start to get tougher for Democrats. This district includes the Richmond suburbs and other parts of east Virginia; it’s a mix of college-educated suburbs and rural and coastal areas.
The incumbent is Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, who has held the seat for nearly two decades and has become a GOP leader in the House, where he sits on the Armed Services Committee. In a district that Trump won by five points, this should be an easy victory.
But nothing is easy for House Republicans this cycle. In October, a Washington Post survey showed his challenger, Democrat Shannon Taylor, ahead by four points with likely voters (50%-46%).
Taylor is doing what good House Democrats should do this cycle: attacking an unpopular Trump over the war, tariffs, immigration and spending.
This will be a close race. It’s hard to see how Democrats could flip this district and not take a healthy House majority.
Virginia’s 5th district
Finally, the stretch goal. Virginia’s fifth district voted for Trump by 12 points in 2024. While it has some university vote, it also contains deeply conservative rural areas in the manufacturing and tobacco towns of Southside Virginia.
In the last presidential election, voters sent Republican John McGuire to Congress. A former Navy SEAL, McGuire ran on his loyalty to Trump, especially on immigration policy.
The Democrat is Tom Perriello, who represented a different version of the seat more than a decade ago and has cast himself as a moderate in this race. He’s been endorsed by a very wide range of Democrats, from Senator Tim Kaine to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who endorsed him both to bring out the college vote and prove that she can work with any kind of Democrat.
If Democrats do well here, it’s a blue tsunami.
Next week, part two of this guide will take one final look at the Senate races that will determine the majority. Where do the Democrats have a good head start? What are their chances in states like Kansas and South Carolina? Answers to those questions and more on election eve.