Did the Democrats finally grow some balls?

Trump's terrible polling has given Dems an opening.

Remember the obituaries for the Democrats after Trump won in 2024?

We sure do. They were hard to read but easy to believe: we focused on the wrong issues. We blew it with a radical agenda. We didn’t know how to talk to young men. And, thanks to demographic and population shifts, we were doomed never to win another election again.

As we watched Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries taking his well earned victory lap after Virginia’s vote on redistricting it dawned on us that maybe, just maybe, things had really changed.

“Our message to Florida Republicans is F around and find out,” Jeffries said. Based on recent actions, there’s good reason for Governor DeSantis to take him seriously. And for the rest of us to think that the Democratic Party may have found their mojo 15 months after Trump was inaugurated for a second time.

The Democrats are ahead in election polls, leading by wide margins on the major issues, and – can you believe it – even winning elections. Last week’s redistricting referendum victory in Virginia gives the party a head start of up to four seats this November.

It makes a lot of sense when you look at the state of the economy. Trump’s biggest decisions have directly pushed up prices and ended benefits for millions of voters. They have reasons to listen to Democrats again, and on this and other policy issues, the party has been focused.

We’re a long way from celebrating, but we like what we’re starting to see from the Democrats.

Democrats have a lot to celebrate in recent polls

Let’s start with the generic ballot; the closest proxy we have to the results of a congressional election if it were held today. In an average of high-quality polls conducted in April, Democrats are hovering right around the 50% mark, and an average of 4 points ahead of the GOP.

That’s one point more than the average margin this time four years ago, in an election that saw the GOP narrowly take the House but fail to take the Senate.

The Democratic advantage is even stronger with key voters: in the Fox News Poll, the party is up 16 points with independents, 12 points with Hispanics, and 19 points with voters under age 30. Even groups that have drifted towards the GOP in the Trump era, like white non-college voters, are tightening: the GOP advantage with that group is down to 15 points, half what it was in the 2024 presidential election.

Trump is dragging down the GOP on almost every issue, but especially on the economy. He has a net -32 approval rating with all voters in the Fox poll, and a catastrophic -60 rating with independents. It’s even worse on inflation, with a -44 net approval overall and -70 with independent voters.

Things aren’t much better with the other top issues this election. His foreign policy approval rating is down to net -20 points, or, when just asked about Iran, -26 points. Trump also suffers from a net negative rating on his signature issue, immigration, at -8 points. One note here: voters still like his approach to border security, specifically, where he has a +6 rating.

Overall: Democrats have a lot of polling bright spots, particularly with independents, while the GOP is languishing under Trump.

Voters get it: Trump owns a lousy economy

Let’s back up and remember how we got into this mess: Trump won in 2024 because voters were apoplectic about the economy. Inflation had run rampant under Biden and voters had a candidate in front of them who said he would “rapidly drive prices down” and “make America affordable again.”

Since then, Trump has made three significant economic decisions:

1. He imposed tariffs on almost everything you buy

Trump’s tariffs have defined the economic policy of his second administration. It’s been a rollercoaster: from “Liberation Day,” where tariffs of up to 49% were imposed on every country, to the Supreme Court striking down those tariffs because of Trump’s flimsy “emergency” rationale, to today’s global 10% standard.

Consumers have lost every step of the way. As we have previously written, Harvard’s Tariff Tracker shows that they increased the price of goods by 5-7% last year. The Tax Foundation says that amounts to an average tax increase of $1,000 per US household last year, and $600 this year. Even after SCOTUS ruled that Trump must return more than $166 billion in duties to businesses, “almost none” of them have committed to passing savings onto consumers.

2. He pushed a bill that slashed Medicaid, Obamacare, and food stamps

Despite holding majorities in both chambers of Congress, Republicans have only passed one major piece of economic legislation: the Big, Beautiful Bill.

Here are just three of the major impacts on Americans:

• Disproportionately cuts taxes for the wealthy: yes, everybody gets a tax cut, but it’s higher-income households who benefit the most, since they already pay the most tax (and get all sorts of other bonuses in the bill).

• Slashes benefits for everybody else: The bill pays for those tax cuts by reducing spending on Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, SNAP, and other public services. The cuts amount to a staggering $1.1 trillion for Medicaid and Obamacare alone, and will result in 15 million people losing their health coverage.

• Slows the transition to electric vehicles to a crawl: It costs $7,500 more to buy an electric vehicle (or $4,000 more to buy a used vehicle) thanks to the BBB, which killed a federal tax credit for making the switch. The bill also makes it more expensive to switch to renewable energy at home.

3. He started a war with Iran

Trump’s war, now at two months and counting, has sent gas prices soaring. Filling up cost just under $3 per gallon before the war; today, the price sits $1.10 higher, or a 37% increase in two months.

It’s a Trump “twofer:” not only did he break his decade-defining promise not to start new wars, he also broke his 2024 commitment to get gas “below $2 a gallon.”

Democrats are focused and winning on key items

Put it all together, and Democrats already have a great case for these midterms simply by pointing out that they’re not Trump. Voters don’t like this economy, it’s a direct result of Trump’s decisions, and the Democrats don’t support it. That may not be enough to win a presidential election in two years, but it might get the job done in 2026.

And to be clear, that’s a different message to the one the Democrats have sent before. Throughout the first Trump term, the party was almost obsessive about investigating the president – you’ll recall breathless commentary about the “walls closing in” on Donald and the first family – this time, the party is succeeding by staying focused on his policies, not his personality.

Independently of that, the Democrats are also notching up their own wins. We have talked about the party’s success in New Jersey and Virginia, and countless special elections. This week, we added Virginia’s redistricting referendum to the tally, where, despite selling a partisan map to a purple state that would normally be inclined to stick with the status quo, voters said yes.

On policy, there are early signs of success: the Dems have fought back against ICE overreach and a lack of accountability, leading to the ouster of Kristi Noem and a promise from the new secretary to work with Congress, not against it. The party still hasn’t caved on the DHS shutdown, showing voters that it won’t back down without a fight. Even messaging about Trump’s personal corruption is starting to break through.

---

It’s a long road to the midterms, and especially when foreign policy is in the mix, it’s too early to predict the outcome. But the polling is clear: voters aren’t happy with Trump, and they’re warming to a Democratic Party that is focused on the issues and scoring victories. It’s about as much as you can ask for in April.