I often make predictions that turn out to be incorrect. While the narrative around AI disrupting the labor market has shifted since last summer, the rest of this post, sadly, is proving prescient. As I wrote last year, Donald Trump is building an American secret police. Recent killings at the hands of ICE agents, revelations of inhumane conditions at detention centers (i.e., concentration camps), and leaders who fund, rather than reign in, this administration’s lawless mass deportation campaign confirm that we’re not teetering on a slippery slope, but plunging down a vertical drop. There is a silver lining: Many Americans are standing up. If you’re one of them, thank you, and keep going.
Editorial note: This post was originally published on July 11, 2025.
President Trump is no longer fighting inflation, China, or AI. Instead, he’s declared war on a manufactured threat: the “enemy within” — immigrants, journalists, and professors. Our biggest threat, apparently, isn’t Russian aggression or economic inequality; it’s your Uber driver or anthropology professor. This is not only cruel (and depraved) but stupid, as the chill being cast across the agriculture, services, and construction sectors will likely be more inflationary than the tariffs (more stupidity). Trump’s goal is to deport 4 million undocumented people over four years — that’s about 3% of the U.S. workforce; 10% to 15% in several sectors dependent on immigrant labor.
The “Big, Beautiful Bill” signed into law on July 4 isn’t about border security. It’s a blueprint for mass detention and deportation, a $75 billion axe in search of a scapegoat. Under the law, ICE gets funding that rivals the military budgets of Italy or Israel to build sites like the facility in the Everglades nicknamed Alligator Alcatraz. The goal? Fear.
This isn’t law enforcement. It’s authoritarian cosplay designed to scare the electorate and silence dissent. Trump’s war doesn’t punish behavior but identity, as immigrants from certain countries and ethnicities are targeted. Federal agents in full tactical gear swept through a park in Latino-heavy L.A. this week, just to make a point. The mayor said: “It’s the way a city looks before a coup.” Q. What do storm troopers, the KKK, and ICE have in common? A mask.
Modern-Day Secret Police
ICE has become Trump’s personal Praetorian Guard. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Vice President Harris’s running mate, was excoriated for comparing ICE to the gestapo. But spare us the bullshit indignation: Masked agents in fatigues raiding churches and schools separating families is not modern America but 1930s Europe. Or is it?
In the 2026 fiscal year, ICE will receive over $11 billion, a 10% increase from current funding. The new law will more than double that. It authorizes the hiring of 10,000 agents, bringing ICE’s force to nearly 30,000. In 1944, Nazi Germany had 32,000 gestapo officers and $2b (inflation adjusted) in funding. They were fighting a world war. Trump is fighting home health aides and sous chefs.
Criminals? Not Really
ICE claims it’s targeting “the worst of the worst.” But fewer than one-third of the record 59,000 immigrant detainees have been convicted of any crime. The rest? A: Immigrants who didn’t look like the typical Iowa voter.
Trump’s reach even extends to his political rivals. He publicly questioned the citizenship of NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani and his former First Friend (Elon). Mamdani has been a U.S. citizen since 2018. Doesn’t matter. “Criminal” now also means “not for Trump.”
Jobs and Lies
The argument that immigrants are stealing jobs is a lie told by people who’ve never built a business or managed a P&L. Immigrants create jobs. They work jobs native-born Americans won’t touch. They pay into Social Security but rarely collect. Deporting them is an economic own goal. The Cato Institute estimates the cost of mass deportations could eventually exceed $1 trillion. The Peterson Institute projects a 1.2% drop in GDP if 1.3 million people are deported, growing to 7% if deportations hit 8 million. That’s not policy, but (see above) stupidity: hurting others while hurting yourself.
The Real Invasion: AI
Instead of militarizing immigration enforcement, we should be investing against the real challenge: AI. The World Economic Forum says 9 million jobs globally may be displaced in the next five years. Anthropic’s CEO warns AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. Imagine the population of Greece storming the shores of America and taking jobs (even jobs Americans actually want), as they’re willing to work 24/7 for free. You’ve already met them. Their names are GPT, Claude, and Gemini.
Want to protect American workers? Train, don’t terrorize.
Media and Academia in the Crosshairs
Trump’s war on domestic enemies doesn’t stop with ICE. He’s coming for the press and the academy. Disney, Meta, and Paramount have all settled nuisance lawsuits with Trump, for a combined total of about $60 million. All the funds go to his presidential library — where truth will go to be laundered, not learned. Newsrooms are folding or playing defense. Breaking with a long-standing tradition, the White House is handpicking press pool participants.
Harvard, once America’s aircraft carrier strike force of soft power, is now a MAGA speed bag. Autocrats always come for universities, which train people to ask questions. The White House is threatening to defund billions in research, choke off international student visas, and criminalize campus dissent. Nearly 300 top researchers have applied for “scientific asylum” — in France. In the thirties and forties, some of the world’s premier academics fled Europe for America. They brought quantum theory, chemotherapy, modern computing, and other breakthroughs with them. Oh, including the bomb. The rivers of elite human capital are now flowing in reverse, and we’re sending the scholars back. How can we be this fucking stupid?
Warriors vs. Whiners
This isn’t a slippery slope, but a vertical drop. Trump has Congress kneeling, courts folding, and corporations cashing in. What’s left is us. This was never just about immigrants, professors, or journalists. It’s about unchecked power that, unchallenged, is metastasizing.
Democracy doesn’t defend itself. We won’t fight this with hashtags, but with votes, lawsuits, and courage. This is the moment we decide: Are we citizens of a republic, or spectators at its collapse?
Life is so rich,
P.S. Greatness is in the agency of others, and behind me, there’s a talented research team with their own newsletter, Extra Credit. If you’re a student or an educator, get 50% off Prof G’s annual and monthly plans: Matriculate here or forward this to your favorite student.
Scott says nothing when illegals kill Americans, which happens 100x more than ICE hurting an illegal. He also won’t host them in one of his many luxury homes. Hope Zohran keeps taxing him and seizing his assets so he can get what he voted for.
So true Yuri!!!! I wonder how he would feel if one of his loved ones was raped and/or killed by an illegal who has been released multiple times in a sanctuary city.
Lastly, I will say the only reason we’re here is because the Biden/Obama administration allowed 10 million plus illegals to flow into this country! That, is why we are where we are today with ICE!