I know it isn’t the focus of the article but I don’t understand why more people aren’t discussing the core incompetency of the polymarket influencer campaign. If you are going to fake the bets at least do it with a small delay using real recreated results not just made up bullshit. I guess it’s good that it was so obviously inconsistent with reality but is disappointing that the grifts are so amateurish and effective.
You are 100% right. Another interesting angle is AI labelling. It's happening more and more with creators, but advertisers on social media isn't subject to the same rules. It should be!
Maybe the most depressing data point is that Gen Z is more likely to want to buy something they see advertised in their feed than something an actual friend recommended.
Based on the data presented in your charts, it looks like the data suggests that influencers are better at building trust with Gen Z than their own friends. But we know it goes beyond trust alone.
They're very real but they differentiate themselves by technically being a prediction market so instead of betting on the outcome, you're making a value-backed prediction. While prediction markets do present real opportunities in better knowing the unknowable, they're mostly just used for sports and political betting these days.
I know it isn’t the focus of the article but I don’t understand why more people aren’t discussing the core incompetency of the polymarket influencer campaign. If you are going to fake the bets at least do it with a small delay using real recreated results not just made up bullshit. I guess it’s good that it was so obviously inconsistent with reality but is disappointing that the grifts are so amateurish and effective.
It's also easy to image that you can get away with a lot more than Polymarket did with just a little planning/foresight. Pretty alarming.
You are 100% right. Another interesting angle is AI labelling. It's happening more and more with creators, but advertisers on social media isn't subject to the same rules. It should be!
So depressing...
Maybe the most depressing data point is that Gen Z is more likely to want to buy something they see advertised in their feed than something an actual friend recommended.
ffs 🤦♂️
Based on the data presented in your charts, it looks like the data suggests that influencers are better at building trust with Gen Z than their own friends. But we know it goes beyond trust alone.
Fairness Doctrine. Orrrrr. Make it fkn illegal!
The last podcast I listened to the speaker said “let me check the Kalshi odds on that race”. Are Kalshi and Polymarket bets real, or fake?
They're very real but they differentiate themselves by technically being a prediction market so instead of betting on the outcome, you're making a value-backed prediction. While prediction markets do present real opportunities in better knowing the unknowable, they're mostly just used for sports and political betting these days.
Really glad to see someone talking about this! Also wrote an article getting into the weeds of how this space has evolved over time: https://particularity.substack.com/p/yes-thats-also-an-ad